When you review historical indicators of conversion likelihood, you are missing out on the smaller segment of truly interested students who, based upon geography or demography, do not “look” like the majority of students you see applying and enrolling.
While predictive modeling is more useful than looking at individual historical conversion factors, because it is based upon history it can’t adequately account for changes in your pool from year to year, or for the smaller “interested” segment of the larger pool.
The solution:
Enrollment Strategy Profiler (ESP)
ESP starts with RCQ data and adds the strength of predictive modeling. Through the predictive model, each inquiry is assigned a decile score based upon historical inquiry-to-enrollment data. Students are then placed within a matrix based upon a cross-tabulation of their RCQ (interest/attitudinal) grade and their decile (historical) score.
ESP maximizes the strengths and minimizes the weaknesses of using either attitudinal or historical data alone:
- It’s a reality that you will not be able to survey every single inquiry that enters your pool. ESP enables you to assess students even if they weren’t surveyed, by assigning them a model score.
- Interest level trumps historical indicators: if a student has a low conversion probability based upon geodemographic data, yet has told you he is very interested in your institution, that’s someone with whom you want to talk. Predictive modeling alone would not enable you to pinpoint that student; qualification will.
If you were to take your enrolling and non-enrolling pools and plot their interest level at the point of inquiry with their historical propensity to enroll, you will see two distinct areas emerge. ESP takes that information and applies it to your inquiry pool now.
Divert mailings and counselor outreach away from the lower propensity group and toward the higher. Break down your communications plan so that the strongest ESP segments get “everything,” from all of your mailings to counselor outreach to faculty calls to special invites, while other segments receive just portions of your plan. Maximize your efficiencies in staff time, materials, postage, and overall budget without sacrificing—and in fact enhancing—the efficacy of your recruitment plan.
